Number of commuting accidents growing briskly
According to the forecast of the Finnish Workers' Compensation Centre for the current year 2024, the number of commuting accidents will increase by as much as 8 per cent compared to last year. According to the forecast, the number of accidents at workplace will remain roughly at the 2023 level.
According to the forecast of the Finnish Workers' Compensation Centre, wage and salary earners will have 114 000 accidents at work this year, of which 90 000 are accidents at workplace and 24 000 commuting accidents. The total number of accidents at work will increase by 2 % compared to 2023.
The number of accidents at workplace will remain almost unchanged; according to the forecast, the increase in accidents at workplace will be only 0,6 per cent this year.
The frequency of accidents at workplace is described by the frequency number of accidents at workplace. According to the forecast, this frequency figure will remain more or less at last year's level this year: 25 accidents at workplace per one million hours worked.
Most commuting accidents occur when the temperature is around zero degrees
Although the number of remote workers seems to have stabilized more than before even after the coronavirus pandemic, the number of reduced commuting trips is hardly visible in the development of the number of commuting accidents. This year, the number of commuting accidents will rise clearly from the previous year, by as much as 8 per cent.
"The weather has a direct impact on the number of commuting accidents. If there is slippery weather in Southern Finland, this is also reflected in the number of commuting accidents compensated. Most commuting accidents occur when the average daily temperature is around zero degrees," says Janne Sysi-Aho, Database Analyst at the Finnish Workers' Compensation Centre.
Background information about the forecast
Every autumn since autumn 2020, the Finnish Workers' Compensation Centre has published a forecast of the number of accidents at work for the current year.
The aim of forecasting is to provide as reliable an estimate as possible of the development of the number of accidents at work during the current year.
The forecast for 2024 was compiled using data collected from insurance companies on claims amounts and two different neural network-based time series forecast models. The forecast models are described in more detail in the analysis of the forecast in the Occupational accident data: "TVK's forecast: The number of accidents at work will increase in 2024 and the frequency of accidents at work will remain at the previous level" (in Finnish)
Upcoming statistical publications of TVK
The Finnish Workers' Compensation Centre will publish the final number of accidents at work and the frequency of accidents at work for 2024 in February 2025.